Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:03:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf71…6254 crypto 202 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$2 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate78%154W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day78.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 +0.3% -9.2% 78% 72% -8.5%
≤30d 198 +0.3% -9.2% 78% 72% -8.5%
≤90d 198 +0.3% -9.2% 78% 72% -8.5%
all 198 +0.3% -9.2% 78% 72% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 72% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 55% -17.3%
15% -25.8% 17% -25.3%
20% -33.1% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses154 / 44
Open positions4
Markets (closed)198 / 202
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day78.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 76¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.49 · official $2.18 (match) · 369 history records