Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:55:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
CF 0xcf6b…9f34 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$101 (+1%) realized +$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate81%25W / 6L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$348
other 16% −$1,316
world 3% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 1% +$1,068
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 0% -9.3%
all 31 +34.0% +21.2% 81% 19% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.2% 19% -8.5%
10% +9.6% 16% -17.2%
15% -1.0% 16% -25.2%
20% -10.7% 16% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +70% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$613 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses25 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage179d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $33 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on May 12? May 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 27? Apr 27 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 4°C or below on March 19? Mar 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? Mar 17 $35 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 07 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on March 1? Mar 03 $65 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $64 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 09 $119 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on February Feb 07 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 07 $1,254 +$946 +75%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $267 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Feb 07 $169 −$169 -100%
Heat vs. Celtics Feb 07 $132 +$1,068 +809%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $287 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Feb 07 $1,694 −$1,694 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 06 $1,026 +$774 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 06 $1,288 +$12 +1%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Feb 06 $54 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Feb 06 $230 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 5? Feb 06 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 5? Feb 06 $1,257 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 05 $166 +$474 +285%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 05 $174 +$496 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 04 $400 −$362 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 04 $134 −$134 -100%
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 07 $1,381 −$1,321 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 07 $34 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $33 37d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $33 49d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $33 62d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 27? BUY No 99¢ $31 95d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 4°C or below on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $35 103d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $35 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $65 117d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $65 119d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $65 126d
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 100¢ $64 140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1,254 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $169 142d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $267 142d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $60 142d
Heat vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 11¢ $132 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 7? SELL No 100¢ $288 142d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1,401 142d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $293 142d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $55 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $287 142d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1,026 142d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,288 142d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on February BUY No 100¢ $12 142d
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $54 143d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $230 143d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $53 143d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,257 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.86 · official $32.86 (match) · 93 history records