Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf65…ad03 other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$161 (-0%) realized −$160 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%25W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$928per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,071now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$22
30 days−$851
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$135
politics 39% −$49
sports 12% +$16
economics 2% −$3
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -5.1% -14.1% 10% 0% -12.4%
≤90d 80 -15.5% -23.5% 9% 4% -10.6%
all 118 -0.8% -10.2% 21% 14% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 14% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 13% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 13% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,319) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$26 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,071
Realized−$160
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses25 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage123d
Avg bet$928
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $727 $726 −$0 (-0%)
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $345 $345 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,649 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,188 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,314 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,605 −$4 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,092 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $2,223 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 04 $71 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 04 $483 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,473 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $568 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $997 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 23 $819 −$819 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,606 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,696 −$2 -0%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 08 $919 +$1,267 +138%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,669 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,416 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $698 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $564 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $520 −$460 -88%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $1,712 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $1,643 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $3,451 −$4 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $2,739 −$3 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1,678 −$2 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $1,309 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $686 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $2,813 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $583 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $345 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $727 29h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,384 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,386 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,140 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,142 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,255 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,256 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,241 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,243 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,057 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,058 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,327 10d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,329 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,317 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,319 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $930 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $931 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,091 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,092 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,192 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,193 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 14d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $863 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $864 18d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $907 18d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $908 18d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $805 21d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $806 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,071.28 · official $1,071.28 (match) · 400 history records