Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CF 0xcf65…e09d crypto 873 markets active 8h ago coverage 42d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$882 (-1%) realized −$882 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%475W / 398L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,971
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +4.4% -5.6% 61% 61% -4.4%
≤30d 676 -0.1% -9.6% 56% 56% -10.5%
≤90d 873 -2.8% -12.1% 54% 54% -11.7%
all 873 -2.8% -12.1% 54% 54% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 54% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 54% -20.2%
15% -28.2% 54% -27.9%
20% -35.2% 52% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$136 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$882
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses475 / 398
Open positions0
Markets (closed)873 / 873
History coverage42d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 873 Trades
no open positions (384 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$52 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$55 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $206 −$200 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1528 history records