Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CF 0xcf63…ffd4 politics 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 636d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$165 (+1%) realized +$164 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%21W / 58L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$12
other 18% +$9
politics 14% −$7
economics 6% −$2
sports 2% +$174
tech 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.9% -0.6% 14% 14% -8.0%
≤30d 21 +7.2% -3.0% 14% 10% -8.1%
≤90d 67 +11.7% +1.0% 25% 19% -7.9%
all 79 +11.3% +0.7% 27% 18% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 18% -8.9%
10% -9.0% 18% -17.6%
15% -17.8% 15% -25.6%
20% -25.8% 15% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×10.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.64 per $1 lost it wins $3.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

636d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$164
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses21 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage636d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $146 $147 +$1 (+1%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $48 $0 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $7 +$5 +70%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $11 +$9 +83%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $65 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $82 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $230 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $239 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $488 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $253 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $237 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 01 $240 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 01 $232 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $238 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $242 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $232 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 25 $229 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $245 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $250 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 23 $239 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $235 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $285 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $237 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 2h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 24h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 25h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $7 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $35 3d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $35 3d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 4d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 6d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $146 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $39 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $39 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 10d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 10d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 13d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $11 14d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.12 · official $215.12 (match) · 324 history records