Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CF 0xcf62…872d other 104 markets active 5d ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$15
politics 28% −$10
sports 8% +$8
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -6.2% -15.1% 5% 2% -9.8%
all 104 -2.2% -11.5% 10% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 6% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage106d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $224 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $219 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $277 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $244 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $216 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $234 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $243 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $288 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $236 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $277 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $210 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,241 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $445 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $207 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 19 $353 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 19 $235 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $193 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $176 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $215 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $389 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 16 $246 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $182 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $477 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $244 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $481 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $461 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $226 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $197 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $38 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $38 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 9d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $224 18d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $224 21d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $219 23d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $219 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $277 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $277 41d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $277 41d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $277 41d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $244 42d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $244 42d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 43d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 44d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $234 44d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $234 45d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $243 45d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $243 45d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $288 45d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $288 45d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $203 46d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $203 46d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $236 46d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $236 46d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $277 46d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $277 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 334 history records