Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CF 0xcf62…2236 other 472 markets active 1h ago coverage 738d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%151W / 315L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$16
other 9% −$27
politics 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 53 -2.2% -11.5% 36% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 142 -1.6% -10.9% 34% 1% -9.9%
all 466 -0.4% -9.8% 32% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

738d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses151 / 315
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)466 / 472
History coverage738d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Jun 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 16 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 13 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Jun 11 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 09 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 07 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 06 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 04 $80 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 02 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Chainlink reach $12 in May? May 30 $90 −$1 -1%
Will BNB reach $700 in May? May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? May 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 29 $90 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? May 28 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 26 $179 $0 -0%
Will Kolkata Knight Riders win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? May 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 21 $90 $0 +0%
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 20 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? BUY No 100¢ $75 1h
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? SELL No 100¢ $75 1h
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $75 27h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 99¢ $75 27h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 98¢ $15 2d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $75 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL No 98¢ $78 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY No 98¢ $15 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 99¢ $70 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $80 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $15 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $80 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $79 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $15 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $79 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $80 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $14 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $80 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? SELL No 99¢ $79 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.09 · official $80.09 (match) · 1017 history records