Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

CF 0xcf60…cbb0 crypto 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$34 (+35%) realized +$33 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +144% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +104% what you keep after slip

Net edge+104%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+120.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+144.0%	+120.7%	67%	67%	+109.5%
≤30d	6	+144.0%	+120.7%	67%	67%	+109.5%
≤90d	6	+144.0%	+120.7%	67%	67%	+109.5%
all	6	+144.0%	+120.7%	67%	67%	+109.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+120.7%	67%	+109.5%
10%	+99.6%	67%	+89.5%
15%	+80.3%	67%	+71.2%
20%	+62.6%	67%	+54.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +132% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +144% · $-wt +132% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$30 vs −$11 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.48 per $1 lost it wins $5.48

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$21

Realized+$33

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	74¢	78¢	$20	$21	+$1 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Jun 17	$10	+$69	+691%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$21	+$22	+106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 17	$11	−$10	-92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 17	$11	+$11	+101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 17	$12	−$12	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 17	$11	+$18	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	74¢	$21	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$79	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$10	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$44	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	44¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	SELL Up	70¢	$22	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$12	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	SELL Down	88¢	$29	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$11	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.22 · official $20.95 (match) · 11 history records