Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf5e…95e3
sports · 1029 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$534 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,391 · open +$858
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,406
Realized−$1,391
Unrealized+$858
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses532 / 471
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$566
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1003 / 1029
History coverage57d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 21 History 1003 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$416
7 days−$1,065
14 days−$870
30 days−$1,470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Under 13¢ 76¢ $41 $238 +$197 (+485%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Under 21¢ 81¢ $58 $229 +$171 (+295%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Under 25¢ 78¢ $53 $164 +$111 (+210%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Under 33¢ 81¢ $59 $147 +$87 (+147%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Under 34¢ 82¢ $57 $139 +$82 (+143%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Under 38¢ 92¢ $57 $138 +$81 (+142%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Under 31¢ 90¢ $33 $94 +$62 (+190%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Under 18¢ 81¢ $13 $58 +$45 (+350%)
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Spurs 87¢ 94¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+7%)
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Indiana Fever 79¢ 100¢ $27 $34 +$7 (+27%)
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 Under 54¢ 100¢ $15 $28 +$13 (+85%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 172.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Cincinnati Reds 29¢ 57¢ $6 $11 +$6 (+98%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Houston Astros 72¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+39%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Over 75¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+20%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) New York Yankees 63¢ 67¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 Under 55¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+82%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Under 36¢ 93¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+158%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Chicago White Sox 60¢ 78¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Washington Nationals 66¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Under 26¢ 81¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+213%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Miami Marlins 71¢ 82¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+16%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Toronto Blue Jays 71¢ 83¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Milwaukee Brewers 74¢ 84¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+14%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Cincinnati Reds 71¢ 83¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 14 $87 −$7 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 14 $75 +$2 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $87 −$7 -8%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $27 +$14 +53%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5) Jun 14 $27 −$9 -33%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 14 $7 +$3 +39%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 14 $25 −$3 -12%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 13 $15 −$14 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $15 +$13 +84%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 13 $9 +$3 +27%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +81%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $13 +$6 +44%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $9 +$3 +36%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $67 −$66 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $8 +$5 +60%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $13 +$5 +36%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 13 $7 +$5 +81%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $67 −$66 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $34 −$34 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $69 −$68 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 13 $56 +$43 +76%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 13 $19 +$8 +44%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $34 +$4 +12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $102 +$78 +76%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 13 $32 −$32 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 13 $33 −$33 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $18 +$160 +874%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 13 $36 −$36 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $279 −$222 -80%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 12 $15 +$4 +29%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $94 −$47 -51%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $17 −$16 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 12 $7 +$2 +32%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $14 +$17 +121%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 Jun 12 $15 +$15 +101%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $6 −$1 -11%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kan Jun 11 $6 +$6 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Martin Landaluce vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $173 +$121 +70%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 -12%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 11 $54 −$54 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$534
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) SELL Knicks 67¢ $79 5m
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Knicks 72¢ $87 6m
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) BUY Spurs 87¢ $44 12m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 SELL Under 85¢ $77 27m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 BUY Under 82¢ $75 27m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline SELL Spurs 80¢ $80 32m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 86¢ $87 32m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 172.5 BUY Over 91¢ $14 54m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Under 34¢ $58 58m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 BUY Under 33¢ $61 58m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 BUY Under 25¢ $54 58m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 BUY Under 38¢ $58 58m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 BUY Under 31¢ $33 59m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2 59m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 BUY Under 21¢ $59 59m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Under 13¢ $42 59m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 59m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 BUY Under 18¢ $13 59m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 BUY Over 75¢ $8 1h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 60¢ $3 1h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5) SELL Indiana Fever 37¢ $18 1h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5) BUY Indiana Fever 54¢ $27 1h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 66¢ $3 1h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 72¢ $4 1h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) SELL Las Vegas Aces 50¢ $22 1h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 55¢ $25 1h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 74¢ $3 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 79¢ $27 1h
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 71¢ $3 1h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 71¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 +1.6% -8.0% 52% 50% -26.3%
≤30d 518 +9.3% -1.1% 55% 53% -16.8%
≤90d 1003 +6.5% -3.6% 53% 51% -12.9%
all 1003 +6.5% -3.6% 53% 51% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 51% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 46% -21.3%
15% -21.3% 37% -28.9%
20% -29.0% 29% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,405.67 · official $1,405.72 (match) · 2376 history records