Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:48:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcf5a…9241 world 19 markets active 2d ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$161 (+0%) realized +$160 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%18W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,815per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,876now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$20
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$22
politics 21% +$22
economics 16% +$15
other 15% +$91
tech 11% +$4
crypto 5% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 18 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,855) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1,876
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses18 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage90d
Avg bet$1,815
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,875 $1,876 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1,874 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,872 +$2 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $1,868 +$4 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,863 +$6 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,855 +$7 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $1,849 +$6 +0%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1,840 +$9 +0%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 19 $1,832 +$2 +0%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $1,822 +$9 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed May 13 $1,817 +$5 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? May 09 $1,816 +$2 +0%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 05 $1,810 +$5 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 02 $1,769 +$42 +2%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $1,767 +$2 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 13 $1,765 +$2 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $1,761 +$4 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $1,717 +$44 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $1,709 +$9 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1,875 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 100¢ $1,874 4d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,872 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,868 8d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,863 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,855 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,849 24d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 100¢ $22 27d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 100¢ $1,558 27d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 100¢ $260 27d
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,365 30d
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? BUY Yes 100¢ $467 30d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY No 100¢ $1,822 33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed BUY No 100¢ $1,817 36d
Will Trump visit China by May 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,816 41d
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b BUY Yes 100¢ $244 45d
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b BUY Yes 100¢ $332 45d
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b BUY Yes 100¢ $332 45d
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b BUY Yes 100¢ $665 45d
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b BUY Yes 100¢ $236 45d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $1,769 59d
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,767 63d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,765 68d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,761 71d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $1,717 89d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $1,709 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,875.83 · official $1,875.83 (match) · 44 history records