Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CF 0xcf59…0abc crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$424 (-7%) realized −$421 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%46W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$6
tech 29% −$358
crypto 16% −$36
finance 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 39 -7.2% -16.1% 90% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 49 -5.6% -14.6% 92% 0% -10.8%
all 52 -7.2% -16.1% 88% 0% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 0% -15.4%
10% -24.1% 0% -23.5%
15% -31.4% 0% -30.9%
20% -38.1% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$85 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$421
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses46 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage147d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,544 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 10? Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 8? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 03 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 1? Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 29? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 28? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27? May 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 27? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 25 $29 −$28 -97%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 23? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 22? May 23 $11 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 21? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 20? May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 19? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 19? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on May 18? May 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Mar 13 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,540 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,544 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 10d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $12 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $31 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $33 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $32 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $31 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $31 20d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 1? BUY No 95¢ $12 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $31 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.37 · official $41.37 (match) · 104 history records