Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:19:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf59…43df crypto 43 markets active 2d ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$224 (-6%) realized −$144 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$754now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$46
14 days−$48
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 40% +$8
crypto 29% −$257
politics 14% −$19
other 10% −$238
sports 7% +$214
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -61.9% -65.5% 15% 15% -11.9%
≤30d 19 -44.7% -50.0% 26% 21% -4.1%
≤90d 20 -47.5% -52.5% 25% 20% -8.8%
all 31 -39.7% -45.4% 23% 16% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.4% 16% -13.9%
10% -50.7% 13% -22.1%
15% -55.4% 10% -29.7%
20% -59.8% 6% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$26 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$754
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 24
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions12
Markets (closed)31 / 43
History coverage151d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 60¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 46¢ 48¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+3%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? No 12¢ 14¢ $59 $73 +$15 (+25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 80¢ 46¢ $45 $26 −$19 (-42%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $53 $13 −$39 (-74%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $24 $9 −$15 (-64%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $84 +$10 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $844 −$28 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $575 +$154 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 12 $27 −$16 -60%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 12 $24 −$13 -53%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $40 −$34 -85%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $69 −$60 -87%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $64 −$35 -54%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$20 -97%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $112 +$116 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? May 31 $21 −$20 -97%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 31 $166 +$98 +59%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $111 −$108 -97%
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Mar 09 $29 −$2 -7%
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027? Feb 01 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Jan 30 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $28 $0 +0%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on January 15? Jan 15 $134 −$123 -92%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on January 15? Jan 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 15 $69 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jan 15 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? Jan 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jan 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jan 15 $16 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 80¢ $46 2d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $41 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $52 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $103 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $205 4d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $208 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 100¢ $701 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 95¢ $180 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 85¢ $177 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 80¢ $302 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 72¢ $101 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 22¢ $115 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 97¢ $552 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 50¢ $43 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $43 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 69¢ $22 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 21¢ $40 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $753.72 · official $753.72 (match) · 157 history records