Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcf58…4996 sports 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate65%24W / 13L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$13
other 23% +$4
crypto 19% $0
world 12% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +14.9% +4.0% 65% 59% +8.1%
≤30d 37 +14.9% +4.0% 65% 59% +8.1%
≤90d 37 +14.9% +4.0% 65% 59% +8.1%
all 37 +14.9% +4.0% 65% 59% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.0% 59% +8.1%
10% ← realistic here -6.0% 59% -2.2%
15% -15.1% 57% -11.7%
20% -23.4% 54% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses24 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)37 / 50
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+20%)
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Yes 32¢ 53¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 60¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +119%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$7 +86%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +197%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$2 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 +$1 +85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$2 +53%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$2 +54%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 4m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $2 25m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $1 27m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 28m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 57m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $7 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $2 1h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A BUY 30¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $1 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 13h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 14h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.33 · official $25.13 · 98 history records