Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf56…b7ac other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+3%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$4
politics 26% −$1
other 26% +$28
finance 10% −$1
economics 6% +$1
culture 3% $0
tech 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 29% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 25% 0% -11.0%
all 29 +3.2% -6.7% 45% 3% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 3% -6.7%
10% -15.6% 3% -15.6%
15% -23.8% 3% -23.8%
20% -31.2% 3% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage449d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +8%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $1 $0 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $110 −$4 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $73 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $44 +$1 +2%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $14 −$4 -32%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? May 07 $2 −$2 -79%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 19 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $2 $0 -19%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will courts block Trump's tariffs by Friday? Apr 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 10 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $10 +$32 +339%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 06 $2 $0 -14%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? Apr 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 41°F or below on April 2? Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $30 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $30 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $22 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $21 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $13 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $31 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $4 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $34 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $33 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $5 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $38 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $38 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $38 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.79 · official $30.79 (match) · 106 history records