Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf51…4ad2 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-19%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$101
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$94
crypto 30% −$19
sports 13% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -43.7% -49.1% 38% 31% -32.7%
≤30d 13 -43.7% -49.1% 38% 31% -32.7%
≤90d 13 -43.7% -49.1% 38% 31% -32.7%
all 34 -16.3% -24.2% 62% 32% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 32% -26.9%
10% -31.5% 15% -33.9%
15% -38.1% 3% -40.3%
20% -44.2% 3% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage144d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$25 +54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 −$3 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $39 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 17? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $110 −$74 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 19 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Feb 19 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 19 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 19 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 19? Feb 19 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? Feb 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 1 Feb 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 13? Feb 12 $2 $0 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 Feb 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $1 $0 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $3 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $4 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $4 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9? Feb 09 $17 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 29 Jan 29 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 28 Jan 28 $9 +$2 +25%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Jan 28 $9 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $45 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $42 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $20 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $24 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $18 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $45 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $39 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $36 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $110 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records