Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf49…2486
crypto · 859 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$968 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$934 · open +$34
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$102
Realized+$934
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses542 / 315
Open positions2
Markets (closed)857 / 859
History coverage110d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 857 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$12
14 days+$51
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 47¢ 94¢ $41 $82 +$41 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 41¢ 30¢ $27 $20 −$7 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $105 +$65 +62%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $26 +$23 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 +$10 +96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 08 $34 +$16 +49%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 07 $24 −$9 -37%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 06 $25 −$22 -88%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $26 +$25 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $18 +$13 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 02 $32 +$18 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 31? Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma Jun 01 $24 +$26 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 31 $15 +$35 +237%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 30? May 31 $40 +$10 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 30? May 30 $14 −$12 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 29? May 30 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on May 29? May 29 $8 +$13 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $53 −$29 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $36 +$14 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26? May 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 25? May 25 $34 +$116 +348%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 25? May 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 23? May 23 $18 +$31 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 11? May 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 10? May 10 $54 +$35 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 10? May 10 $50 −$22 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 10? May 10 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 9? May 09 $23 +$17 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $30 +$27 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 6? May 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4? May 08 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 29 May 08 $83 −$58 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 1? May 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 70°F or higher on May 1? May 08 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6? May 08 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 7? May 07 $26 +$24 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 7? May 07 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 6? May 06 $18 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 81°F or below on May 6? May 06 $53 +$16 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 6? May 06 $86 +$24 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 5? May 05 $52 +$48 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 5? May 05 $25 −$24 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 5? May 05 $30 +$9 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 4? May 04 $39 −$23 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 4? May 04 $36 −$19 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 3? May 03 $34 +$16 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% +$686
weather 34% +$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 40¢ $9 58m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 38¢ $7 58m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 40¢ $3 58m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 58¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 59¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 56¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 41¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 35¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 30¢ $12 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 35¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 35¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 35¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 35¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 39¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 43¢ $9 28h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 39¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 39¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $4 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 50% -5.7%
≤30d 27 +16.2% +5.2% 52% 52% +3.6%
≤90d 787 +3.4% -6.5% 60% 37% -6.6%
all 857 +3.8% -6.1% 63% 38% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 38% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 20% -15.3%
15% -23.3% 11% -23.5%
20% -30.8% 8% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.45 · official $102.45 (match) · 3500 history records