Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:49:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf48…9d53 politics 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,022per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% −$36
economics 7% −$1
other 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$975) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage72d
Avg bet$1,022
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 25? Jun 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,882 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $940 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $941 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $940 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,888 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,738 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $950 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,917 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $955 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $954 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $955 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $958 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $962 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $973 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $973 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $976 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $977 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $935 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $937 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $936 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $938 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $938 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $940 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $938 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $940 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $940 17d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $941 18d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $938 22d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $940 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $941 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $942 25d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $947 26d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $948 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $943 29d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $944 29d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $945 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $946 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $949 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $951 33d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $949 35d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $950 36d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $951 37d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $953 37d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $954 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.74 · official $47.69 (match) · 104 history records