Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CF 0xcf48…36d9 world 14 markets active 11h ago coverage 65d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$991 (+21%) realized +$991 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +136% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +114% what you keep after slip
Net edge+114%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$991
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$27
other 31% $0
sports 17% +$960
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+113.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 7 +272.5% +237.0% 57% 14% +60.2%
≤90d 14 +136.3% +113.8% 57% 7% +9.3%
all 14 +136.3% +113.8% 57% 7% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +113.8% 7% +9.3%
10% +93.3% 7% -1.1%
15% +74.6% 7% -10.7%
20% +57.5% 7% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +136% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +272% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$10 · ×12.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×33.16 per $1 lost it wins $33.16
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$991
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage65d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $49 $0 +0%
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Jun 22 $87 −$3 -4%
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $49 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jun 03 $511 +$19 +4%
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? May 28 $484 +$30 +6%
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5) May 26 $50 +$945 +1900%
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? May 24 $57 $0 +1%
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? May 22 $487 −$20 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $490 +$4 +1%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? May 15 $491 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? May 13 $484 +$4 +1%
Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5) Apr 23 $382 +$8 +2%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $752 −$8 -1%
Spread: Kocaelispor (-2.5) Apr 19 $367 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $24 11h
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $25 11h
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $25 12h
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $24 12h
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $41 13h
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $42 13h
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $44 13h
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 13h
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 7d
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 7d
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 7d
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $24 7d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 19d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 19d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 19d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 19d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 19d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 19d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $511 25d
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $513 25d
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $484 27d
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5) BUY AD Ceuta FC $25 29d
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5) BUY AD Ceuta FC $25 29d
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? SELL Yes $1 29d
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? SELL Yes $27 29d
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? SELL Yes $29 29d
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? BUY Yes $29 29d
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? BUY Yes $28 29d
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $467 31d
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $487 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records