trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $36 | $36 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $66 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $8 | +$3 | +33% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 11 | $4 | $0 | -5% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York C | Jun 24 | $10 | −$3 | -29% |
| Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jun 23 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? | Jun 22 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 22 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 21 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele | May 10 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? | May 10 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb | May 10 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? | May 05 | $1 | $0 | -10% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Apr 04 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 02 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? | Mar 24 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025? | Mar 23 | $15 | −$2 | -16% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +5.6% | -4.5% | 60% | 20% | -7.9% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +5.6% | -4.5% | 60% | 20% | -7.9% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +5.6% | -4.5% | 60% | 20% | -7.9% |
| all | 21 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 48% | 5% | -10.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.6% | 5% | -10.4% |
| 10% | -19.1% | 5% | -18.9% |
| 15% | -26.9% | 0% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -34.1% | 0% | -34.0% |