Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CF 0xcf46…6067 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$13 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$1,217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$41
world 1% −$20
sports 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-68.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -58.4% -62.3% 30% 20% +2.1%
≤30d 12 -65.3% -68.6% 25% 17% -2.2%
≤90d 12 -65.3% -68.6% 25% 17% -2.2%
all 12 -65.3% -68.6% 25% 17% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.6% 17% -2.2%
10% -71.6% 17% -11.5%
15% -74.4% 17% -20.1%
20% -76.9% 8% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$7 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$1,217
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage21d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1,170 $1,162 −$8 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$19 +65%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $137 +$59 +43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,113 40m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 44m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 44m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 44m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $29 48m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 53m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 54m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 56m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $71 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $18 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $81 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $12 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 25h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 18d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 54¢ $5 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,216.58 · official $1,216.58 (match) · 27 history records