Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf45…5903
other · 124 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,809 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,099 · open +$1,238
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15,774
Realized−$3,099
Unrealized+$1,238
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses36 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions42
Markets (closed)82 / 124
History coverage322d
Avg bet$579
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%
Chart Positions 42 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days−$359
14 days−$686
30 days−$684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026? No 67¢ 96¢ $1,678 $2,416 +$738 (+44%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1,378 $1,423 +$45 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $1,151 $1,404 +$253 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $585 $965 +$381 (+65%)
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama Nothing 95¢ 88¢ $1,033 $958 −$75 (-7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1,035 $824 −$211 (-20%)
Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027? No 93¢ 95¢ $674 $690 +$17 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $793 $669 −$124 (-16%)
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange before 2027? No 94¢ 91¢ $692 $668 −$23 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $740 $640 −$100 (-13%)
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $600 $600 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $508 $515 +$7 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $504 $509 +$5 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $505 $497 −$8 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $464 $468 +$4 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 59¢ 88¢ $291 $435 +$145 (+50%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $300 $425 +$124 (+41%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 74¢ 92¢ $223 $276 +$54 (+24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 88¢ 97¢ $176 $194 +$18 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $137 $184 +$46 (+34%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $172 $167 −$4 (-2%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No 84¢ 96¢ $118 $134 +$17 (+14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $89 $120 +$30 (+34%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 38¢ 76¢ $59 $118 +$59 (+100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 83¢ 95¢ $66 $75 +$9 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$68 +134%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,850 +$161 +6%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $185 −$185 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $104 +$46 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $259 −$259 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $745 −$13 -2%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $2 +$2 +70%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 30 $67 −$49 -73%
New pandemic in 2026? Apr 13 $120 +$3 +2%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $184 −$9 -5%
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? Apr 13 $1,789 −$45 -2%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Apr 13 $5,154 −$161 -3%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Apr 04 $181 +$29 +16%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Apr 04 $256 −$5 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027? Apr 04 $571 −$48 -8%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026? Apr 04 $547 −$26 -5%
Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027? Apr 04 $622 −$48 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 04 $686 −$15 -2%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Apr 03 $105 +$6 +5%
Weed rescheduled by March 31? Apr 01 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 01 $106 +$4 +4%
Will the US deport illegal migrants to Argentina by March 31? Apr 01 $644 +$127 +20%
Will Denmark qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $1,681 −$1,681 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will DR Congo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $14 +$6 +45%
Will Jamaica qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $13 +$7 +49%
Will Kosovo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $56 +$28 +49%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027? Mar 26 $695 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Mar 21 $186 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027? Mar 21 $880 −$4 -0%
Will Midtjylland win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 21 $994 +$13 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 17 $1,807 −$38 -2%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $1,811 −$64 -4%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? Mar 17 $139 +$7 +5%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $400 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $400 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 57% −$1,463
politics 28% +$756
crypto 7% +$411
world 3% −$1,501
sports 2% −$37
finance 1% −$15
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Emiliano Martínez win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 15¢ $6 1h
Will Emiliano Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 1h
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W BUY Yes 24¢ $12 1h
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W BUY Yes 24¢ $11 1h
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W BUY Yes 24¢ $4 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 60¢ $6 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 11¢ $1 1h
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 1h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 1h
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 1h
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 1h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $51 19h
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 0¢ $0 19h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $2,842 19h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,399 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $230 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 16¢ $144 5d
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $42 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 9¢ $52 5d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $511 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $506 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $507 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $510 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 69¢ $104 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 14¢ $52 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 41¢ $27 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 27¢ $28 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 18¢ $185 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -39.3% -45.0% 38% 25% -18.4%
≤30d 13 -42.0% -47.5% 31% 23% -22.7%
≤90d 56 -21.2% -28.7% 39% 16% -17.5%
all 82 -23.4% -30.7% 44% 15% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 15% -14.7%
10% -37.3% 9% -22.9%
15% -43.4% 9% -30.3%
20% -48.9% 4% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,773.98 · official $15,775.41 (match) · 697 history records