Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CF 0xcf44…f97e other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-16%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.7% -18.3% 67% 33% -29.9%
≤30d 3 -9.7% -18.3% 67% 33% -29.9%
≤90d 3 -9.7% -18.3% 67% 33% -29.9%
all 3 -9.7% -18.3% 67% 33% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 33% -29.9%
10% -26.1% 33% -36.6%
15% -33.2% 33% -42.7%
20% -39.8% 33% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$78 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $79 −$78 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $72 +$7 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$28 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 91¢ $79 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $72 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $41 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.49 · official $64.49 (match) · 7 history records