Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CF 0xcf44…74d8 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$24 (+3%) realized +$28 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$10
14 days−$8
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$49
politics 37% +$4
other 12% −$15
finance 6% −$13
tech 1% −$2
economics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.5% -15.4% 0% 0% -15.3%
≤30d 20 -8.7% -17.4% 45% 25% -15.8%
≤90d 45 +16.9% +5.8% 44% 33% -7.3%
all 45 +16.9% +5.8% 44% 33% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.8% 33% -7.3%
10% -4.3% 27% -16.2%
15% -13.6% 18% -24.3%
20% -22.1% 16% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Open positions7
Markets (closed)45 / 52
History coverage41d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 64¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? No 72¢ 74¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 41¢ 41¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Yes 71¢ 62¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 76¢ 57¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 26 $30 −$5 -16%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Jun 26 $10 $0 -3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 24 $71 −$4 -6%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam Jun 22 $40 $0 -1%
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $40 +$5 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 14 $29 −$6 -19%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $20 +$5 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $20 +$5 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $20 +$3 +14%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 29 $16 −$1 -8%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 28 $10 −$1 -8%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 28 $10 −$1 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $10 $0 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 -31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 26 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? May 26 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? May 26 $0 $0 -85%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $328 in May? May 26 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi May 26 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 26 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in May 2026? May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? May 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 25 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 23 $10 +$5 +44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $4 +$13 +298%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 23 $12 +$4 +32%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 23 $7 +$5 +77%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 23 $9 +$23 +258%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $2 +$12 +667%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 23 $10 +$21 +212%
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $610b on May 31? May 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $9 +$31 +358%
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in May 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $50 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $50 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 1h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House SELL Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 54¢ $32 2d
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam SELL Yes 87¢ $40 4d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? SELL Yes 84¢ $21 8d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 85¢ $45 8d
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 11d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 50¢ $31 11d
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam BUY Yes 87¢ $40 11d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 11d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 11d
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 11d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 11d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 11d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $51 11d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $50 12d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL No 67¢ $24 12d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $23 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $20 14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL Yes 57¢ $22 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $29 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 95¢ $25 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $23 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $25 18d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY No 80¢ $29 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.71 · official $225.71 (match) · 108 history records