Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf42…6f45 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$140 (-21%) realized −$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$114
14 days−$114
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$113
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -14.2% -22.3% 43% 36% -20.0%
≤30d 14 -14.2% -22.3% 43% 36% -20.0%
≤90d 14 -14.2% -22.3% 43% 36% -20.0%
all 14 -14.2% -22.3% 43% 36% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 36% -20.0%
10% -29.8% 29% -27.7%
15% -36.6% 14% -34.7%
20% -42.8% 14% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$25 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage10d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$17 -17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +118%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$82 -81%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $66 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 83¢ $64 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $50 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 38h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 65¢ $84 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records