Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf41…8226 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$424 (+1%) realized +$544 · open −$120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$655per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2,729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% +$104
world 18% +$95
other 17% +$87
crypto 14% +$248
economics 10% −$178
tech 7% +$102
sports 3% −$50
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -54.2% -58.5% 25% 0% -15.9%
all 38 -15.8% -23.8% 55% 16% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 16% -7.6%
10% -31.1% 11% -16.4%
15% -37.8% 5% -24.5%
20% -43.9% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$985) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$85 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$2,729
Realized+$544
Unrealized−$120
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)38 / 50
History coverage239d
Avg bet$655
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 79¢ 97¢ $1,051 $1,290 +$238 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 87¢ $683 $714 +$31 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $337 $331 −$6 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $268 $266 −$2 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $30 $51 +$21 (+68%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 39¢ 5¢ $206 $26 −$180 (-87%)
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-11%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $30 $10 −$21 (-68%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $17 $9 −$9 (-50%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 14¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $35 $4 −$31 (-88%)
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-84%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$133 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $927 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,020 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $951 +$29 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Australian Open? Apr 01 $52 −$52 -100%
TikTok sale announced by March 31? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Loopscale launch a token by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $16 −$16 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $40 +$2 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $3,024 +$19 +1%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 26 $296 −$260 -88%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 23 $152 −$90 -59%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 02 $742 +$50 +7%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jan 23 $576 −$449 -78%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 22 $2,757 +$543 +20%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31? Jan 17 $520 +$1 +0%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jan 11 $233 −$34 -14%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Jan 10 $2,464 +$112 +4%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 07 $36 +$1 +3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jan 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $1,021 +$8 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 01 $2,210 +$26 +1%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 28 $707 +$318 +45%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Dec 28 $489 +$99 +20%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 28 $1,564 +$45 +3%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 26 $5 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 26 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025? Dec 26 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 09 $29 −$12 -41%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 05 $491 −$154 -31%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 05 $985 +$242 +25%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 27 $2,000 +$25 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 15 $33 +$39 +120%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 05 $1,177 +$56 +5%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 05 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $800 +$64 +8%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 02 $130 +$37 +28%
Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 02 $361 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $268 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $18 5d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $318 17d
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $36 19d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $73 20d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $1,060 25d
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $24 25d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $408 49d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $337 65d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $683 65d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $980 65d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 14¢ $108 70d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 22¢ $36 82d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $3 85d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 96¢ $951 87d
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $6 99d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $64 108d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL Yes 11¢ $39 108d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL Yes 13¢ $20 112d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 37¢ $296 113d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $206 114d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 45¢ $134 114d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $242 135d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $2,505 135d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $472 136d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $40 136d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $455 138d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 20¢ $41 138d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 20¢ $93 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,729.23 · official $2,729.29 (match) · 208 history records