Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CF 0xcf3f…7103 crypto 988 markets active 1d ago coverage 92d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$831 (-1%) realized −$831 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate70%755W / 319L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,401
sports 2% −$1,174
finance 1% −$10
other 0% +$67
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -44.9% -50.2% 38% 16% -45.2%
≤30d 238 -33.7% -40.0% 50% 17% -36.5%
≤90d 1009 -14.1% -22.3% 69% 25% -16.9%
all 1074 -13.2% -21.4% 70% 25% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 25% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 15% -24.6%
15% -35.8% 10% -31.9%
20% -42.1% 7% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$90 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$831
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses755 / 319
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1074 / 988
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$143
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1074 Trades
no open positions (253 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $985 −$985 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $69 −$161 -233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $485 −$485 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $531 −$531 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $591 −$591 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $590 −$590 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $492 −$492 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $127 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $13 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records