Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf3c…2de7 other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-5%) realized −$4 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$2
sports 24% −$4
crypto 3% −$2
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -10.0% -18.5% 55% 43% -16.1%
≤30d 42 -10.0% -18.5% 55% 43% -16.1%
≤90d 42 -10.0% -18.5% 55% 43% -16.1%
all 42 -10.0% -18.5% 55% 43% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 43% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 33% -24.1%
15% -33.4% 24% -31.5%
20% -40.0% 12% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions37
Markets (closed)42 / 80
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 75¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 33¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 51¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $3 $0 -8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$7 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +35%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 +$1 +56%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +53%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $3 $0 -5%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 −$1 -35%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +46%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $2 $0 -3%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 202 BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 75¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World BUY Yes 43¢ $1 36h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Ronaldo 40¢ $1 37h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $1 43h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $2 2d
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2d
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 35¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $2 2d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 77¢ $3 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $2 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $2 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $2 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Ben Shelton 45¢ $1 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.17 · official $61.17 (match) · 148 history records