Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf3a…fbfd sports 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,925 (+1%) realized +$3,001 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%55W / 91L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,515per market
Trades / day66.7pace
Fees−$3,936est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$31,460
other 4% −$3,661
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -31.9% -38.4% 34% 33% -40.3%
≤30d 146 -30.5% -37.2% 38% 37% -28.4%
≤90d 146 -30.5% -37.2% 38% 37% -28.4%
all 146 -30.5% -37.2% 38% 37% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.2% 37% -28.4%
10% -43.2% 34% -35.3%
15% ← realistic here -48.7% 28% -41.5%
20% -53.7% 19% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$1,335) neutral
Persistence
early -29% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$559 vs −$723 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$2,219
Realized+$3,001
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses55 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$3,936
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 149
History coverage23d
Avg bet$1,515
Trades / day66.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 52¢ $1,495 $1,426 −$69 (-5%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $800 $793 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $607 +$373 +61%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $709 +$472 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,316 −$311 -24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3,202 −$650 -20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,062 −$1,050 -99%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $500 −$15 -3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,203 +$603 +50%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $709 −$543 -77%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$459 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,980 −$368 -19%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$5 -19%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $475 +$509 +107%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $611 +$17 +3%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $125 −$12 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $402 +$83 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5,244 −$2,242 -43%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $609 +$551 +90%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $456 +$355 +78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,418 −$272 -19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $577 −$314 -54%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $152 +$98 +65%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $303 +$133 +44%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $303 +$132 +43%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $153 −$12 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $303 −$15 -5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $486 +$90 +18%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $607 −$97 -16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,189 +$330 +28%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,758 −$113 -6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,826 −$1,550 -85%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $506 +$300 +59%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $658 +$527 +80%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $303 −$121 -40%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $505 +$276 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $254 +$278 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,112 −$1,095 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3,041 −$76 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,615 −$319 -20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,152 −$1,090 -95%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $607 +$345 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $759 −$750 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 +$124 +61%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $773 −$732 -95%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $724 −$715 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,902 −$199 -10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $672 −$664 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,092 −$809 -74%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $305 −$250 -82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $940 +$296 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,767 −$353 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $811 12m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 53¢ $779 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $1,521 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $811 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $202 19h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $607 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 69¢ $252 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 67¢ $202 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $506 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 52¢ $602 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 35¢ $403 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 28¢ $102 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $102 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $102 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $505 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $506 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $1,426 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $51 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $51 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 25¢ $51 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $506 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $225 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $76 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $39 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 15¢ $101 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $153 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 16¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 16¢ $1 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 14¢ $4 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 12¢ $15 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,218.64 · official $2,218.64 (match) · 1543 history records