Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf3a…989b other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 37L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$6
other 22% +$1
politics 9% $0
finance 6% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 3% −$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 +1.1% -8.6% 46% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 13 +1.1% -8.6% 46% 0% -8.8%
all 55 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.0%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.7%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.98 per $1 lost it wins $4.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage466d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $55 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $73 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $100 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $48 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $87 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $83 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $53 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $102 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Aug 10 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $14 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 11 $4 −$1 -23%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 06 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $16 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $54 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $56 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $55 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $55 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $8 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $24 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $6 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $27 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $33 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $50 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $50 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $13 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $9 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $41 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $48 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $35 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $35 17d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.57 · official $1.57 (match) · 235 history records