Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf37…993f sports 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (416 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$10,700 (-17%) realized −$10,534 · open −$166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate51%58W / 56L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day415.7pace
Fees−$709est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$5,379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$699
other 40% +$1,729
world 4% −$4
weather 3% +$211
tech 2% +$6
culture 1% +$72
politics 0% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (416 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +28.5% +16.2% 50% 34% -3.6%
≤30d 114 +21.4% +9.8% 51% 33% -3.8%
≤90d 114 +21.4% +9.8% 51% 33% -3.8%
all 114 +21.4% +9.8% 51% 33% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover415.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.8% 33% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -0.7% 23% -13.0%
15% -10.3% 21% -21.4%
20% -19.1% 14% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$81 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$5,379
Realized−$10,534
Unrealized−$166
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses58 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$709
Open positions118
Markets (closed)114 / 152
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$406
Trades / day415.7
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 118 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 26¢ 37¢ $295 $427 +$132 (+45%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? No 63¢ 77¢ $236 $288 +$53 (+22%)
Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 83¢ 94¢ $250 $283 +$33 (+13%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? No 98¢ 100¢ $250 $255 +$5 (+2%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? No 76¢ 100¢ $187 $245 +$59 (+31%)
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 97¢ 99¢ $239 $244 +$5 (+2%)
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $241 $242 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? No 97¢ 100¢ $234 $241 +$8 (+3%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? No 81¢ 100¢ $174 $216 +$42 (+24%)
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $209 $212 +$3 (+2%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky New York Liberty 72¢ 100¢ $141 $196 +$55 (+39%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 39¢ 38¢ $196 $187 −$9 (-4%)
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 51¢ 52¢ $179 $183 +$4 (+2%)
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $176 $179 +$2 (+1%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 32¢ 22¢ $240 $163 −$77 (-32%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 65¢ 94¢ $93 $135 +$42 (+46%)
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 67¢ 68¢ $93 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $79 $85 +$6 (+8%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? No 21¢ 20¢ $87 $80 −$6 (-7%)
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? No 11¢ 96¢ $9 $78 +$69 (+807%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 60¢ 62¢ $71 $74 +$3 (+4%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? No 89¢ 40¢ $162 $72 −$90 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? No 82¢ 94¢ $57 $65 +$8 (+14%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $63 $63 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? No 84¢ 100¢ $51 $61 +$10 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 18 $60 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $102 +$152 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $34 +$160 +465%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 −$19 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $89 −$49 -56%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $377 +$851 +226%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 17 $251 +$51 +20%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Jun 17 $8 −$3 -38%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $111 −$34 -31%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $249 −$244 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $438 −$102 -23%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $529 −$247 -47%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $267 −$205 -77%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $185 +$26 +14%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $249 +$96 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$13 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $60 +$89 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $48 +$71 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 −$31 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $685 $0 -0%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $201 −$1 -0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 15 $195 −$14 -7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $250 +$14 +6%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $249 +$59 +24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $250 +$97 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,873 +$26 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $55 −$36 -65%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $387 +$182 +47%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $724 +$261 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $121 −$98 -81%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $360 −$40 -11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $358 −$104 -29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $344 +$56 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$199 +809%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $297 +$789 +265%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,057 +$127 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $326 −$29 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $157 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $317 −$6 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$9 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $122 −$38 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $78 −$19 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $117 −$5 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL No 73¢ $1 0m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL No 73¢ $75 0m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 52¢ $82 0m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 0m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $46 0m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL No 92¢ $23 1m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 90¢ $46 1m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 90¢ $22 1m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 1m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL No 93¢ $43 1m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 10¢ $22 1m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 90¢ $42 2m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 2m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 2m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 3m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 3m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 3m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 3m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL No 74¢ $25 3m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 26¢ $37 4m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 70¢ $63 4m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 72¢ $5 4m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL No 92¢ $63 7m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 30¢ $30 7m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 7m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL No 92¢ $150 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,378.80 · official $5,366.42 (match) · 3500 history records