Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:41:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf35…24b8
sports · 43 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$47 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage188d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 3 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$21
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 58¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) Deiveson Figueiredo 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Tuco Tokkos 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Zhang Mingyang 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Tatsuro Taira 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight, Prelims) Nikolay Veretennikov 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
O/U 3.5 Rounds Under 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelims) Shamil Gaziev 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card) Moreno 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) Artur Minev 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, Main Card) Gerald Meerschaert 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, Prelims) Jingnan Xiong 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) Tim Elliott 33¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card) Ollie Schmid 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card) Malcolm Wellmaker 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Shamil Gaziev win by KO or TKO? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Zhang Mingyang win by KO or TKO? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Zhang Mingyang win by KO or TKO? May 30 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sergei Pavlovich win by KO or TKO? May 30 $2 +$1 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $7 +$3 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $5 $0 +8%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 30 $1 +$1 +53%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $3 +$3 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $6 +$9 +140%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 17 $5 +$2 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 16 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $3 +$1 +44%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $5 +$3 +50%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $10 +$5 +54%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $4 +$2 +60%
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? May 08 $3 −$3 -98%
O/U 3.5 Rounds May 08 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 08 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $26 +$21 +81%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 02 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Marwan Rahiki win by KO or TKO? May 02 $2 +$1 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main C May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 02 $5 +$8 +151%
Will Shamil Gaziev win by KO or TKO? May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 02 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Bryczek vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Main Ca May 02 $2 +$1 +46%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 02 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Kevin Christian (Light Heavyweight, P May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 02 $4 +$4 +92%
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, M May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 88% −$27
other 12% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 17¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $6 1h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 13d
Will Zhang Mingyang win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 13d
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh BUY Zhang Mingyang 69¢ $2 13d
Will Sergei Pavlovich win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 13d
Will Sergei Pavlovich win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 13d
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai SELL Kai Asakura 100¢ $10 13d
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai BUY Kai Asakura 72¢ $2 13d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Sumudaerji 49¢ $5 13d
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim SELL Luis Felipe Dias 99¢ $2 13d
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Ding Meng 0¢ $0 13d
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim BUY Luis Felipe Dias 64¢ $1 13d
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Ding Meng 53¢ $2 13d
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Ding Meng 53¢ $2 13d
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Ding Meng 55¢ $3 14d
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P BUY Jingnan Xiong 64¢ $10 14d
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai BUY Kai Asakura 71¢ $5 14d
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Sumudaerji 44¢ $5 14d
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh BUY Zhang Mingyang 71¢ $3 14d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 40¢ $3 14d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 18¢ $5 14d
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Malcolm Wellmaker 68¢ $5 27d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai BUY Arnold Allen 54¢ $3 27d
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli BUY Tuco Tokkos 41¢ $3 27d
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Artur Minev 39¢ $4 27d
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh BUY Nicolle Caliari 71¢ $5 27d
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight BUY Nikolay Veretennikov 47¢ $3 27d
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Dooho Choi 41¢ $6 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 18 -39.0% -44.8% 39% 33% -51.6%
≤90d 38 -30.8% -37.4% 42% 39% -26.9%
all 40 -34.2% -40.5% 40% 38% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 38% -30.5%
10% -46.2% 38% -37.1%
15% -51.4% 38% -43.2%
20% -56.2% 22% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.83 · official $13.83 (match) · 72 history records