Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CF 0xcf35…9362 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7,927 (+31%) realized +$7,794 · open +$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$651per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days+$168
14 days+$168
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$8,141
crypto 10% +$168
politics 7% −$472
world 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 50% -3.6%
≤30d 2 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 50% -3.6%
≤90d 15 -15.2% -23.3% 47% 20% -9.5%
all 36 +60.6% +45.3% 39% 25% +18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.3% 25% +18.3%
10% +31.4% 22% +6.9%
15% +18.7% 14% -3.4%
20% +7.1% 14% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$980) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +150% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$945 vs −$252 · ×3.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized+$7,794
Unrealized+$133
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage592d
Avg bet$651
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 10¢ 60¢ $30 $180 +$150 (+507%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $21 $20 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $1,827 −$7 -0%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 20 $744 +$175 +24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 04 $333 −$33 -10%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $205 −$205 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $82 +$43 +53%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $302 +$93 +31%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 27 $451 −$33 -7%
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 27 $356 −$51 -14%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 10 $1,494 −$74 -5%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 03 $1,447 +$45 +3%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 03 $604 +$40 +7%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 03 $863 +$19 +2%
Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 03 $665 +$44 +7%
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 03 $22 −$18 -86%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Mar 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Mar 22 $1,079 −$1,019 -94%
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Mar 22 $1,061 −$1,061 -100%
Over $50M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Mar 22 $244 −$244 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Mar 22 $4,277 +$1,374 +32%
Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Mar 22 $631 −$631 -100%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Mar 22 $298 −$298 -100%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 18 $133 +$23 +17%
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 18 $1,019 +$96 +10%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 18 $980 −$980 -100%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 18 $490 −$490 -100%
Harmonix FDV above $25M one day after launch? Mar 18 $226 −$216 -96%
Harmonix FDV above $8M one day after launch? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 29 $3,247 +$1,768 +54%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 05 $54 −$2 -4%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $330 −$16 -5%
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 19 $104 −$13 -12%
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 19 $150 −$25 -17%
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 19 $891 +$2,800 +314%
Over $60M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 19 $411 +$5,590 +1361%
Over $80M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $68 +$1,117 +1650%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $22 51m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $96 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $300 47d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $205 52d
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL Yes 66¢ $125 53d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL Yes 78¢ $78 53d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 24¢ $74 54d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 24¢ $2 54d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 54¢ $226 54d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 54¢ $0 54d
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 23¢ $69 54d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 52¢ $215 54d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 52¢ $225 54d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 54d
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 42¢ $16 54d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 31¢ $64 54d
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $202 54d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $42 54d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $5 54d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $15 54d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $25 54d
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 40¢ $66 54d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $247 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 64d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 64d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 64d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 64d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $48 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.45 · official $283.90 (match) · 571 history records