Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:50:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcf2f…149d weather 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%103W / 7L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$8
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 47 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 96 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 110 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×41.15 per $1 lost it wins $41.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses103 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage123d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $227 $227 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 24 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $192 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $214 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $226 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $163 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 7? Jun 07 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 6? Jun 07 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 3? Jun 03 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 2? Jun 03 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on June 1? Jun 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 1? Jun 02 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 31? Jun 01 $156 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 31? Jun 01 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 30? May 31 $158 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 30? May 31 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ma May 30 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May May 29 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $217 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 27? May 26 $218 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $227 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $219 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $223 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $7 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 30h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $227 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $226 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $192 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $36 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $227 7d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $214 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $226 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $225 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $160 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $65 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $163 11d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $225 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $108 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $120 14d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $224 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $224 16d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $96 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $95 18d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $131 18d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $54 19d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $174 19d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $224 19d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $223 20d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $143 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.18 · official $227.18 (match) · 224 history records