Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf2d…76c8 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-5%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -16.4% -24.3% 38% 38% -16.3%
≤30d 8 -16.4% -24.3% 38% 38% -16.3%
≤90d 8 -16.4% -24.3% 38% 38% -16.3%
all 8 -16.4% -24.3% 38% 38% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 38% -16.3%
10% -31.6% 38% -24.3%
15% -38.2% 38% -31.6%
20% -44.2% 38% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$26 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 46¢ 46¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ 46¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $21 +$26 +124%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $83 −$21 -26%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $50 +$51 +101%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $42 +$29 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $18 24m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $21 58m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $20 44h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $24 45h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $21 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $55 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $28 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $21 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $43 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 58¢ $42 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $24 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.16 · official $38.16 (match) · 20 history records