Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CF 0xcf2a…94be crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$213 (+3%) realized +$225 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%46W / 50L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$378
crypto 35% −$131
politics 15% +$11
other 2% −$34
culture 1% −$24
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 42 -40.0% -45.7% 24% 19% -34.2%
all 96 -4.1% -13.2% 48% 38% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 38% -6.8%
10% -21.5% 30% -15.7%
15% -29.1% 24% -23.8%
20% -36.1% 18% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$225
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses46 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)96 / 99
History coverage587d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 64¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 24 $40 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 24 $24 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 24 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 24 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 24 $40 $0 +0%
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) Mar 24 $50 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$16 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 24 $6 +$5 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 24 $25 +$7 +28%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $231 +$41 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 24 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $79 −$61 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 24 $36 −$12 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on September 25? Mar 24 $79 −$57 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$10 +102%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Mar 24 $68 −$41 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 24 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $369 −$104 -28%
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 24 $31 −$24 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Mar 24 $562 −$33 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 24 $74 −$52 -70%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $79 −$79 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $25 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-29? Mar 24 $58 −$29 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 24 $5 +$5 +93%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $61 −$18 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 24 $25 +$24 +97%
Will Jonas Sulzbach win Big Brother Brasil 26? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $58 +$19 +33%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $83 −$23 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Nov 02 $46 +$2 +4%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 02 $112 +$30 +27%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $121 +$14 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $51 +$20 +39%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Nov 02 $20 +$4 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $18 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $24 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $15 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $20 83d
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) SELL Clippers 99¢ $71 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $12 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 83d
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) SELL Clippers 84¢ $4 83d
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) SELL Clippers 84¢ $21 83d
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) BUY Clippers 49¢ $30 83d
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) BUY Clippers 49¢ $20 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $4 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $20 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.13 · official $5.14 (match) · 673 history records