Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf28…1fc7 crypto 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-7%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%39W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day45.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$37
other 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -24.8% -32.0% 38% 27% -23.1%
≤30d 104 -24.8% -32.0% 38% 27% -23.1%
≤90d 104 -24.8% -32.0% 38% 27% -23.1%
all 104 -24.8% -32.0% 38% 27% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.0% 27% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -38.5% 16% -30.5%
15% -44.4% 13% -37.2%
20% -49.9% 6% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses39 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day45.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 309 history records