Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf26…af95 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$468
other 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-56.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -52.1% -56.6% 29% 14% -64.0%
≤30d 7 -52.1% -56.6% 29% 14% -64.0%
≤90d 7 -52.1% -56.6% 29% 14% -64.0%
all 7 -52.1% -56.6% 29% 14% -64.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.6% 14% -64.0%
10% ← realistic here -60.8% 14% -67.4%
15% -64.6% 14% -70.6%
20% -68.1% 14% -73.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$112 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 28 $265 −$265 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $111 +$91 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $77 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $36 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records