Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf23…0d5d
crypto · 386 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$604 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$92 · open −$75
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$550
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses192 / 164
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions30
Markets (closed)356 / 386
History coverage54d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 30 History 356 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$15
14 days+$287
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 14¢ 40¢ $25 $68 +$43 (+177%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 84¢ 56¢ $98 $65 −$34 (-34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 62¢ $85 $62 −$24 (-28%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Yes 77¢ 52¢ $77 $52 −$24 (-32%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 64¢ 33¢ $96 $50 −$46 (-48%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $37 $46 +$9 (+24%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ 98¢ $31 $39 +$8 (+27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 61¢ 63¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 52¢ 68¢ $10 $14 +$3 (+32%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 42¢ $14 $11 −$2 (-18%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 65¢ 48¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 68¢ 78¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 73¢ 78¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No 48¢ 48¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-20%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 29¢ 30¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 67¢ 50¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 77¢ 48¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+144%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 14 $43 +$49 +114%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$6 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 +$7 +46%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$2 +16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$7 +51%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$6 -61%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 11 $10 −$9 -87%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 11 $10 −$5 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$8 -36%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +32%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +183%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $50 −$16 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 10 $9 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $48 +$18 +38%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 -2%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $43 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 60% +$269
weather 21% −$97
crypto 11% −$218
other 4% −$112
sports 2% −$11
tech 1% +$9
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 61¢ $6 55m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 61¢ $1 55m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 29¢ $6 56m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 87¢ $9 58m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 61¢ $13 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 48¢ $8 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 94¢ $11 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 53¢ $3 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 67¢ $3 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 15¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $9 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL No 8¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $12 30h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 81¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 81¢ $10 34h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 43h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 43h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -0.3% -9.8% 65% 42% -8.2%
≤30d 316 -7.9% -16.7% 55% 38% -13.5%
≤90d 356 -5.8% -14.8% 54% 38% -10.2%
all 356 -5.8% -14.8% 54% 38% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 38% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 29% -18.8%
15% -30.4% 15% -26.7%
20% -37.2% 11% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $549.71 · official $549.71 (match) · 2057 history records