Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CF 0xcf22…7f19 sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42 (+18%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$3
other 7% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +23.0% +11.3% 46% 46% -4.9%
≤30d 13 +23.0% +11.3% 46% 46% -4.9%
≤90d 13 +23.0% +11.3% 46% 46% -4.9%
all 13 +23.0% +11.3% 46% 46% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.3% 46% -4.9%
10% +0.7% 46% -14.0%
15% -9.1% 31% -22.3%
20% -18.0% 31% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $35 −$22 -65%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 20 $15 −$15 -96%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$16 +308%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 +$8 +75%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$23 +226%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $27 +$8 +29%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $70 +$19 +27%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 18 $14 −$8 -54%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $7 +$7 +93%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -85%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -55%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 16 $7 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 19¢ $12 18m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $35 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. SELL No $1 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 54¢ $15 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 18¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 30¢ $10 18h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 65¢ $15 18h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 65¢ $9 18h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 70¢ $1 18h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 68¢ $3 18h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 70¢ $6 18h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 50¢ $7 19h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 19h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. SELL No $0 20h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 57¢ $16 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 66¢ $3 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 66¢ $2 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 66¢ $3 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 66¢ $4 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 66¢ $1 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 66¢ $4 41h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi SELL Yes 28¢ $6 44h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi BUY Yes 58¢ $14 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $3 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.77 · official $1.77 (match) · 55 history records