Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:10:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CF 0xcf1d…ff33 crypto 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+3%) realized +$88 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate62%109W / 68L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$605now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$55
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$70
crypto 28% −$34
sports 15% +$32
world 0% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -13.4% -21.6% 75% 25% +6.9%
≤30d 6 +18.3% +7.0% 67% 33% +4.7%
≤90d 116 -16.1% -24.1% 58% 38% -9.3%
all 177 -7.6% -16.4% 62% 45% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 45% -5.8%
10% -24.4% 33% -14.8%
15% -31.7% 24% -23.0%
20% -38.4% 9% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$605
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses109 / 68
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)177 / 182
History coverage98d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $175 $185 +$10 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $174 $139 −$34 (-20%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $111 $126 +$15 (+14%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $52 −$8 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $136 +$41 +30%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $164 +$15 +9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $60 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 09 $1 $0 +1%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $144 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 23 $12 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 23 $10 +$1 +7%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $39 −$3 -8%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Sharks vs. Blackhawks Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Apr 16 $1 $0 +25%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 16 $2 $0 +13%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? Apr 16 $1 $0 -42%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 09 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 09 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 05 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 05 $6 $0 +4%
AHL: Hershey Bears vs. Hartford Wolf Pack Apr 05 $1 $0 +14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 05 $10 $0 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Five Fears (BO1) - North America League Kick Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Connecticut Huskies (W) Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs LUNA Esports (BO3) - FiReCONTER Grou Apr 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-03? Apr 04 $1 $0 +9%
T20 Central American Championship: Mexico vs Brazil Apr 04 $1 $0 +34%
Pacers vs. Hornets Apr 04 $2 $0 +8%
Will FCSB win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Sao Leopoldo: Murkel Dellien vs Paulo Dos Santos Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs TNC (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Euro Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vitória SC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $1 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs MANA eSports (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Apr 03 $1 $0 +12%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $1 $0 +31%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - HLC Belgrade Pro G Apr 03 $1 $0 +21%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $1 $0 +43%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $1 $0 +21%
Copa Colsanitas: Marie Bouzkova vs Darja Semenistaja Apr 03 $1 $0 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $111 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $177 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $136 10h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 33h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $179 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $179 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $57 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $59 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $60 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 41d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 18¢ $1 41d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $1 41d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $164 51d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $165 53d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $144 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $0 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $15 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $605.46 · official $605.46 (match) · 594 history records