trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 12 | $385 | −$54 | -14% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | Jun 12 | $2,690 | −$673 | -25% |
| Spread: Germany (-3.5) | Jun 11 | $1,390 | −$425 | -31% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1,950 | −$111 | -6% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Jun 11 | $211 | −$42 | -20% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 07 | $2,379 | +$1,071 | +45% |
| Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 07 | $1,540 | −$920 | -60% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | Jun 07 | $1,430 | +$385 | +27% |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Jun 07 | $9,917 | +$9,926 | +100% |
| Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva | Jun 06 | $7,162 | +$2,838 | +40% |
| Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 06 | $320 | +$6 | +2% |
| Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 05 | $25 | +$1 | +2% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca | Jun 04 | $4,900 | −$50 | -1% |
| Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider | Jun 04 | $1,750 | −$1,750 | -100% |
| Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk | Jun 02 | $2,149 | +$1,727 | +80% |
| Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 02 | $120 | +$8 | +7% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi | Jun 01 | $1,917 | +$1,083 | +56% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $9,950 | +$17,238 | +173% |
| Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 01 | $153 | −$2 | -1% |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 01 | $7 | +$1 | +10% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Jun 01 | $18,816 | +$3,575 | +19% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev | May 31 | $8,000 | +$2,000 | +25% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca | May 31 | $14,130 | −$6,101 | -43% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev | May 31 | $4,892 | +$5,620 | +115% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta | May 31 | $2,658 | +$3,942 | +148% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 31 | $1,900 | −$1,900 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 31 | $5,259 | +$4,741 | +90% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | May 30 | $1,450 | +$3,550 | +245% |
| Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka | May 30 | $8,543 | +$9,576 | +112% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | +5.1% | -4.9% | 50% | 33% | +27.4% |
| ≤30d | 29 | +30.9% | +18.5% | 62% | 48% | +33.6% |
| ≤90d | 29 | +30.9% | +18.5% | 62% | 48% | +33.6% |
| all | 29 | +30.9% | +18.5% | 62% | 48% | +33.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +18.5% | 48% | +33.6% |
| 10% | +7.1% | 45% | +20.8% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -3.2% | 38% | +9.1% |
| 20% | -12.7% | 31% | -1.6% |