Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CF 0xcf15…36dc world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$2
other 15% $0
politics 9% −$2
culture 4% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.3% -2.9% 100% 25% -8.0%
≤30d 16 +2.0% -7.7% 62% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 16 +2.0% -7.7% 62% 6% -8.9%
all 45 +0.1% -9.4% 44% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.1% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage470d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 45¢ $39 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $6 +$1 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $86 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $67 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $37 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $69 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 08 $14 $0 -2%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 08 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $13 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 24 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 06 $15 $0 -2%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Apr 04 $18 −$2 -9%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 31 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $16 $0 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 22 $15 $0 +2%
Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke Mar 22 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $39 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $24 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $24 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $34 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $34 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.88 · official $37.80 (match) · 160 history records