Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf0d…6c62 other 489 markets active 1h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,536 (-7%) realized −$1,536 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%244W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$61
14 days+$80
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1,660
sports 48% +$139
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +15.3% +4.3% 65% 58% -2.6%
≤30d 31 +13.4% +2.6% 65% 58% -4.3%
≤90d 56 -4.2% -13.3% 59% 43% -10.7%
all 489 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 41% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 41% -15.6%
10% -20.4% 34% -23.6%
15% -28.1% 29% -31.0%
20% -35.2% 23% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,536
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses244 / 245
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)489 / 489
History coverage332d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 489 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$36 +71%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$20 +100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$31 +65%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$7 +137%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 −$15 -91%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $59 +$8 +13%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$14 +90%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $33 +$12 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $17 +$16 +90%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $18 $0 +3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 −$11 -59%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $12 −$9 -79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $28 +$9 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 −$70 -71%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 +$21 +123%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $68 +$9 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $17 +$11 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$22 +64%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $29 −$15 -50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$17 -45%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$10 +136%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $39 −$33 -84%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $29 +$11 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $75 +$4 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$19 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $39 +$17 +43%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 +$20 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $52 −$38 -73%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $20 +$4 +18%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $29 +$2 +6%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $34 −$4 -13%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $22 +$11 +49%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $16 +$6 +40%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $24 −$8 -33%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $17 +$7 +41%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 07 $17 +$1 +4%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $14 +$3 +21%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $11 +$1 +5%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $15 +$3 +23%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $15 $0 -2%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$8 -75%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $10 $0 +4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 94¢ $87 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $51 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 84¢ $41 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $20 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 60¢ $49 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 78¢ $12 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $1 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 24h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 22¢ $5 27h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $5 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 27h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $5 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $59 41h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 52¢ $15 44h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 75¢ $45 45h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $33 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 91¢ $33 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $18 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $18 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL 19¢ $8 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 44¢ $18 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $2 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $12 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $28 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $28 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $48 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $39 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1289 history records