Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf0c…c886 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$164 (-7%) realized −$203 · open +$39
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%4W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,056now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$12
sports 17% −$146
politics 1% −$3
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 +44.3% +30.5% 50% 50% -8.6%
all 24 -38.3% -44.2% 17% 12% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.2% 12% -20.7%
10% -49.5% 12% -28.3%
15% -54.4% 12% -35.2%
20% -58.9% 12% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$15 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$1,056
Realized−$203
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses4 / 20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage633d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $498 $498 −$0 (-0%)
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $450 $450 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 96¢ $69 $108 +$39 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 26 $926 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Heat Apr 06 $12 +$11 +89%
Kings vs. Capitals Nov 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets Nov 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Commanders vs. Dolphins Nov 17 $13 +$9 +72%
Islanders vs. Utah Nov 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bears vs. Vikings Nov 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Oilers Nov 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Liberty vs. Mercury Sep 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets Jan 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Canucks vs. Hurricanes Jan 13 $136 +$99 +72%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Jan 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 09 $2 −$1 -50%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $450 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $498 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $925 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $70 4h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $926 4h
Kings vs. Capitals BUY Kings 47¢ $8 221d
Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets BUY Canadiens 48¢ $9 221d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Heat 53¢ $12 221d
Islanders vs. Utah BUY Utah 65¢ $19 224d
Bears vs. Vikings BUY Vikings 59¢ $12 224d
Commanders vs. Dolphins BUY Dolphins 58¢ $13 224d
Blue Jackets vs. Oilers BUY Blue Jackets 39¢ $9 228d
Liberty vs. Mercury BUY Mercury 45¢ $5 285d
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 345d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 368d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 403d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 403d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 403d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 406d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $5 407d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $5 407d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 407d
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 408d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 408d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $5 414d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $5 414d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 98¢ $5 422d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $5 422d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 95¢ $5 425d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 95¢ $5 427d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,055.66 · official $1,055.66 (match) · 44 history records