Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CF 0xcf0b…7429 other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 412d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$852 (+16%) realized +$864 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%38W / 30L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$25
14 days−$1,012
30 days−$879
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$175
politics 24% +$425
sports 20% +$105
world 13% +$76
culture 5% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -7.0% -15.9% 60% 60% -2.9%
≤30d 53 -19.2% -26.9% 45% 42% -38.0%
≤90d 56 -16.0% -24.0% 46% 43% -29.4%
all 68 +5.2% -4.9% 56% 53% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 53% +6.2%
10% -14.0% 49% -4.0%
15% -22.3% 41% -13.2%
20% -29.9% 28% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$52 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized+$864
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses38 / 30
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)68 / 75
History coverage412d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $110 $93 −$17 (-16%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 66¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 16¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 13 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Jun 13 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $171 +$42 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $101 +$23 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $91 +$26 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $51 +$58 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $131 +$47 +36%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $103 +$13 +12%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 27h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $10 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 63¢ $45 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $50 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.79 · official $317.66 (match) · 166 history records