Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf09…e85a
crypto · 50 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$144 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$212 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 39
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage43d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 0 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-02? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $204 $0 −$204 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $192 +$198 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $56 −$55 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 07 $154 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 07 $127 +$28 +22%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $38 −$37 -98%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 03 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 02 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 02 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 02 $58 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 02 $60 −$24 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 02 $52 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 02 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 02 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 02 $16 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 02 $16 +$6 +35%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? May 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? May 02 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 02 $20 −$19 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 02 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 02 $18 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 02 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 02 $13 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $208 −$204 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $104 +$303 +291%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 02 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 02 $20 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 02 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 02 $52 +$77 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 02 $61 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 02 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 02 $103 +$14 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% −$23
other 19% +$2
sports 15% −$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 12h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $56 14h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $154 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $127 38d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $38 38d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 78¢ $101 38d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 38d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $0 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $82 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $6 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $6 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $31 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $53 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-62.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -59.3% -63.2% 20% 20% -8.7%
≤30d 5 -59.3% -63.2% 20% 20% -8.7%
≤90d 50 -58.5% -62.5% 22% 22% -18.6%
all 50 -58.5% -62.5% 22% 22% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.5% 22% -18.6%
10% -66.1% 18% -26.4%
15% -69.3% 12% -33.5%
20% -72.3% 10% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records