Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CF 0xcf08…8151 finance 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$95 (+10%) realized +$92 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 45% +$31
world 39% +$51
other 10% +$3
weather 6% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +13.4% +2.6% 100% 60% +2.5%
≤90d 8 +10.8% +0.2% 100% 50% +0.3%
all 8 +10.8% +0.2% 100% 50% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 50% +0.3%
10% -9.4% 12% -9.3%
15% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
20% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage88d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 30? May 31 $61 +$10 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $123 +$17 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $118 +$5 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $129 +$29 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 22 $118 +$11 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 30 $106 +$11 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 29 $103 +$4 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Apr 01 $99 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.75 · official $102.86 (match) · 19 history records