Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf07…c770
other · 380 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$27,112 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15,933 · open +$10,453
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$89,799
Realized+$15,933
Unrealized+$10,453
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses57 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions214
Markets (closed)169 / 380
History coverage60d
Avg bet$518
Trades / day54.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 214 History 169 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$270
7 days−$327
14 days−$483
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $12,707 $12,760 +$53 (+0%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2,926 $3,316 +$390 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 3¢ 99¢ $94 $2,964 +$2,871 (+3058%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? No 51¢ 86¢ $1,623 $2,745 +$1,121 (+69%)
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? No 16¢ 36¢ $1,208 $2,707 +$1,500 (+124%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 57¢ $1,725 $2,679 +$954 (+55%)
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? No 80¢ 76¢ $1,888 $1,814 −$73 (-4%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 64¢ 78¢ $1,453 $1,763 +$310 (+21%)
OPEC dissolves in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,555 $1,615 +$60 (+4%)
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? No 68¢ 70¢ $1,554 $1,602 +$47 (+3%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 44¢ 84¢ $822 $1,558 +$736 (+90%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 83¢ 86¢ $1,354 $1,405 +$51 (+4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $1,643 $1,400 −$243 (-15%)
Will STRC market cap hit $14B by June 30? No 61¢ 98¢ $831 $1,346 +$515 (+62%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 21¢ 28¢ $992 $1,310 +$318 (+32%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 58¢ $1,467 $1,300 −$167 (-11%)
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? No 66¢ 72¢ $1,061 $1,160 +$99 (+9%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 47¢ 64¢ $842 $1,157 +$315 (+37%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 69¢ $1,017 $1,112 +$95 (+9%)
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,065 $1,066 +$1 (+0%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 37¢ $1,308 $929 −$379 (-29%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $914 $924 +$10 (+1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 88¢ 60¢ $1,220 $841 −$379 (-31%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $60 58¢ 88¢ $556 $838 +$282 (+51%)
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 69¢ 60¢ $962 $833 −$129 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $13,112 +$270 +2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $376 +$23 +6%
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? Jun 08 $18 $0 +0%
Bitmine sells any Ethereum in 2026? Jun 06 $554 −$549 -99%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $405 in June? Jun 05 $44 −$44 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in June? Jun 05 $195 −$195 -100%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $152 +$168 +110%
Will Donald Trump announce Jay Clayton as the next United States Attor Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Att Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $300 +$397 +132%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $41 +$476 +1150%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $798 −$593 -74%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $650 −$650 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $676 −$85 -12%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $1,205 +$2,565 +213%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $607 −$607 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $630b and $640b on May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $620b and $630b on May 31? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on May 31? Jun 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on May 31? Jun 01 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on May 31? Jun 01 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on May 31? Jun 01 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on May 31? Jun 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Ethena dip to $0.08 in May? Jun 01 $206 +$8 +4%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? Jun 01 $168 +$340 +202%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $223 +$63 +28%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $671 −$671 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $880 $0 +0%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $653 −$653 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 29 $215 +$6 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $1,730 +$47 +3%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 28 $766 +$934 +122%
Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $336 −$64 -19%
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $521 −$79 -15%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? May 27 $145 +$59 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $775 +$10 +1%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 26 $842 −$283 -34%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $261 −$149 -57%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 26 $114 −$99 -87%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $86 −$86 -100%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $929 +$273 +29%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 25 $1,107 +$732 +66%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 23 $585 +$397 +68%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%? May 23 $67 +$28 +42%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 22 $723 −$122 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% +$20,453
world 25% −$1,163
crypto 20% +$3,654
politics 6% −$149
economics 3% +$86
sports 2% +$1,280
tech 2% +$2,540
finance 1% −$293
culture 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 35m
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $169 35m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $16 42m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 9¢ $18 42m
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 89¢ $44 1h
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $4 1h
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B? BUY No 85¢ $4 2h
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 41¢ $9 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 41¢ $12 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 41¢ $16 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 41¢ $39 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 45¢ $225 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 41¢ $4 5h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 41¢ $4 5h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 41¢ $19 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $12 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 41¢ $21 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $3 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $6 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 41¢ $8 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $8 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $6 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 41¢ $16 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $12 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -25.8% -32.8% 57% 14% -11.6%
≤30d 80 -14.4% -22.5% 36% 19% -10.1%
≤90d 169 +6.7% -3.4% 34% 20% +8.6%
all 169 +6.7% -3.4% 34% 20% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 20% +8.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 19% -1.8%
15% -21.1% 17% -11.3%
20% -28.8% 14% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89,798.75 · official $89,769.44 (match) · 3500 history records