Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CF 0xcf05…ec01 sports 327 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$251 (+14%) realized +$239 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%155W / 151L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$212
14 days+$208
30 days+$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$250
weather 5% +$8
other 4% −$14
politics 3% −$7
world 3% −$18
finance 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 +10.7% +0.2% 55% 52% +11.2%
≤30d 268 +6.1% -4.0% 51% 48% +4.8%
≤90d 306 +3.7% -6.2% 51% 47% +4.0%
all 306 +3.7% -6.2% 51% 47% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 47% +4.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 45% -5.9%
15% -23.4% 33% -15.0%
20% -30.9% 31% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$239
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses155 / 151
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions21
Markets (closed)306 / 327
History coverage38d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 94¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 40¢ 37¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 64¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-71%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 75¢ 35¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-53%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 60¢ 18¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 40¢ 1¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-98%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Juan Bautista Torres 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +32%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +64%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $52 −$35 -66%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $6 +$7 +109%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$4 +291%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +41%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $101 +$88 +87%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +68%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +80%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +267%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +148%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $2 $0 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$2 -33%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$4 +145%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$1 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Aziz Dougaz Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -90%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +226%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $5 −$4 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $2 $0 +32%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$3 -66%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $3 +$1 +32%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $3 −$1 -34%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $2 +$1 +67%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 24¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 75¢ $2 3h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 19¢ $2 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 60¢ $2 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $2 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 14¢ $2 8h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 12¢ $2 8h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 60¢ $2 8h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 50¢ $2 8h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $3 9h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $13 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 10h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 10¢ $15 10h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 14¢ $5 10h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 28¢ $5 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 10h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 48¢ $2 10h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 40¢ $2 10h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 40¢ $2 10h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 40¢ $5 10h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 40¢ $2 10h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 40¢ $2 10h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 40¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.71 · official $45.71 (match) · 1099 history records