Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcf05…a49e sports 55 markets active 4d ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,181 (+17%) realized +$1,181 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%27W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$1,439
tech 15% −$191
politics 14% −$79
other 3% −$32
crypto 2% +$30
economics 0% +$1
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +43.7% +30.0% 67% 67% +39.0%
≤30d 3 +43.7% +30.0% 67% 67% +39.0%
≤90d 4 +7.8% -2.5% 50% 50% +20.6%
all 54 +10.5% -0.0% 50% 43% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 43% +5.8%
10% -9.6% 35% -4.3%
15% -18.3% 31% -13.6%
20% -26.3% 30% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$94 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses27 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage550d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $16 +$14 +83%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$12 -80%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 13 $20 +$26 +129%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Saint Peter's Peacocks vs. Sacred Heart Pioneers Feb 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Cornell Big Red vs. Princeton Tigers Feb 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Ohio State vs. Michigan Feb 03 $40 +$10 +25%
Temple vs. North Texas Nov 29 $50 +$5 +10%
Suns vs. Thunder Nov 29 $50 +$6 +12%
Predators vs. Blackhawks Nov 29 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Nov 29 $500 +$1,500 +300%
Rangers vs. Bruins Nov 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs FaZe (BO3) Nov 28 $345 +$76 +22%
Bengals vs. Ravens Nov 28 $300 +$900 +300%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 27 $1,756 −$1,756 -100%
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Oct 12 $220 −$1 -0%
Oregon State vs. Appalachian State Oct 04 $235 −$235 -100%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 04 $150 +$25 +16%
Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? Oct 04 $200 −$52 -26%
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the Oct 04 $150 −$7 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 04 $315 +$13 +4%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 04 $210 −$3 -1%
Will Roberto Occhiuto win Calabria Regional Election? Oct 04 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31? Oct 04 $100 −$69 -69%
Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Singapo Oct 01 $100 −$29 -29%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30? Oct 01 $200 +$33 +16%
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Sep 29 $50 −$6 -12%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Sep 29 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 29 $210 −$57 -27%
Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on Sep 29 $160 −$118 -74%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Sep 29 $15 +$10 +68%
Will Carlos Moedas be elected Mayor of Lisbon? Sep 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Rockies vs. Dodgers Sep 29 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 29 $10 +$9 +85%
Twins vs. Phillies Sep 29 $30 +$22 +72%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 26 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Sep 26 $50 −$5 -11%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $13 −$5 -38%
Will None in 2025 occur? Sep 26 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 26 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30? Sep 26 $10 +$12 +124%
Tigers vs. Marlins Sep 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Sep 12 $15 −$5 -30%
Rangers vs. Blue Jays Aug 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Twins vs. Tigers Aug 17 $7 +$4 +61%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 04 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $120K on July 21? Jul 26 $15 +$6 +39%
Will Fulham win on 2025-04-26? Apr 29 $5 +$3 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $16 3d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 50d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY Yes 43¢ $8 50d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Magic 43¢ $20 50d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 123d
Saint Peter's Peacocks vs. Sacred Heart Pioneers BUY Saint Peters Peacocks 57¢ $38 123d
Cornell Big Red vs. Princeton Tigers BUY Princeton Tigers 40¢ $16 123d
Rangers vs. Bruins BUY Bruins 45¢ $78 201d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 89¢ $50 201d
Predators vs. Blackhawks BUY Predators 50¢ $1,000 201d
Spurs vs. Nuggets BUY Spurs 25¢ $500 201d
Ohio State vs. Michigan BUY Ohio State 80¢ $40 202d
Temple vs. North Texas BUY North Texas 91¢ $50 202d
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs FaZe (BO3) BUY FaZe 82¢ $345 202d
Bengals vs. Ravens BUY Bengals 25¢ $300 202d
Packers vs. Lions BUY Lions 60¢ $1,756 202d
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? SELL Yes 71¢ $219 248d
Oregon State vs. Appalachian State BUY Oregon State 48¢ $235 255d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands SELL Yes 71¢ $175 255d
Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $148 255d
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the SELL Yes 71¢ $143 255d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 36¢ $19 255d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $328 255d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? SELL Yes 69¢ $207 255d
Will Roberto Occhiuto win Calabria Regional Election? SELL Yes 92¢ $49 255d
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $31 255d
Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Singapo SELL Yes 60¢ $71 258d
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? SELL Yes 60¢ $44 260d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? SELL Yes 87¢ $49 260d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.34 · official $1.34 (match) · 155 history records